Which is NOT a step in the Calibrated Estimation process?

In the Calibrated Estimation process, the goal is to estimate the likelihood of different events or scenarios regarding risk in a structured and practical way. One of the key aspects of this process is to start with imaginative or extreme scenarios, as this allows estimators to consider a wider range of potential outcomes before narrowing them down to more realistic values.

The option that stands out as not being a step in this specific process is the reference to industry standards. While referencing industry standards can be helpful in many risk assessment methodologies, it does not align with the calibrated estimation approach, which encourages starting with a broad view and personal judgment rather than relying on external benchmarks. The calibrated estimation process is more focused on internal calibration among estimators and their subjective experiences, rather than fitting estimates to pre-existing standards.

In contrast, starting with the absurd, eliminating unlikely values, and engaging in calibration games are all techniques designed to foster collaboration among estimators and encourage them to arrive at a more accurate estimation through a dynamic process. This emphasizes the importance of diverse perspectives and adjustments over mere adherence to established norms.