What is the first step in Calibrated Estimation?

The first step in Calibrated Estimation is to decompose the question. This process involves breaking down the overall estimation problem into smaller, more manageable components. By doing this, estimators can focus on each part individually, which helps to clarify the assumptions and details that may be obscured when considering the question as a whole.

Decomposing the question allows for a more structured approach, leading to more accurate and realistic estimates. This is particularly important in complex situations where many variables may influence the outcome. A clear breakdown helps estimators systematically consider the various factors at play, analyze them, and apply their knowledge more effectively.

This method of decomposition is foundational because it sets the stage for the subsequent steps in the estimation process, enabling better assessment and utilization of references, past experiences, and eventual calculation of values.

In contrast, starting with an incredibly detailed analysis may overwhelm the estimator with too much information too early in the process. Eliminating all possible values could be counterproductive, as it might disregard valid possibilities. Referencing past experiences is valuable but typically comes after a clearer understanding of the question, which is why it follows the decomposition step.